This is the Lost Plot Explanation which its starting point is not in the crash of oceanic flight 815, but whether the blast of the hydrogen bomb by Juliet; (בעברית כאן)
It explains why the incident is so important, why Juliet said it worked even though the flash sideway was not created by it and what is exactly the Long Con:
a. In 1977 Juliet detonated the Jughead hydrogen bomb in the Swan construction
b. 2 major things set in motion by the blast:
1. The losties got back to their time otherwise Jacob would not have any candidates.
2. The hatch and its button were built in the future to preserve the electromagnetic energy.
c. Desmond reaches the island to guard the hatch and receives the fail safe key.
d. Desmond causes the losties to crash on the island the one time he did not push the button.
e. Here set in motion the “long con” of the smoke monster:
1. He appears as the smoke monster and chase Jack, and by that luring him into finding the “Adam and Eve” Cave.
2. The Finding of the cave leads to a cave-in on Jack and Charlie, which causes Charlie (by the explanation of Jack on the cave moth struggle that is strengthens him) to get off drugs,
which later be vital.
3. The smoke monster continues its long con and appears as Anna Lucia telling eco to help Locke.
4. Than it appears as Yemi (the brother of Eco) telling Eco he need to find the ? sign.
5. It appears again as Yemi telling eco to look for it in the cliff.
6. Eco goes to the cliff, finds nothing till he looks down and see the question mark in the grass.
7. Eco helps Locke to discover under the plane in the question mark spot the pearl station – the psychological Station.
8. That station that supposedly conducted psychological experiments on the people pushing the button
causes Locke to loose fate (fate VS Science yeah?) in the Island and wanting to prevent the button being pushed in the Swan station.
9. Locke later prevents Eco from pushing the button, and causing the start of the release of the
electromagnetic Energy that could destroy the World. And who comes to rescue?
10. Desmond with its Fail Safe Key (Do not forget than in the end he’s defined as a failsafe himself) uses it , stop the energy flow, and by that receives massive amount of electromagnetism.
11. That electromagnetism energy influence him in 3 ways:
i. Electromagnetism Resistance.
ii. To be unstuck in Time.
iii. Get its foretelling ability at least for a short while.
(He was not born with these abilities as some may think and the proof of that lies with that all of them happened only after the electromagnetism release through him, and even in its own words to Charlie: “You do not want to know what happened to me when I turned the failsafe key”)
12. The foretelling causes a vision to Desmond where he sees Charlie flipping a switch with a blinking Yellow light and drowning,and Claire leaving the island on the chopper, and JUST because of the drowning they realize that the switch is in the underwater station, which leads him to take Charlie to that Station.
13. Remembers that Charlie was off drugs from the cave in lead to by smokie? Well that helped in 3 ways:
i. He was alive and in good shape to dive into the station.
ii. To realize that it’s truelove is with Claire and not the drugs (just as we saw in the limbo memories of the last episode).
iii. To lose his selfishness and sacrifice himself (for Claire to get off the Island) in order to turn off the
switch although he knows he will drown.
14. Turning off the switch got Widmore to be able to put his team on the Island.
15. His Team chased Ben Linus , and the smoke master again appearing as Christian continue its Con and got Ben into turning the Wheel and moving the Island.
16. The turning of the wheel caused these things:
i. Prevented Widmore get a grip on the Island and killing all nominees ( as he
instructed his team to do).
ii. Moving Ben far from the island, letting him the possibility of organize the losties who managed to get off the Island into returning to the Island on Ajira
17. The Ajira flight caused these things:
i. Returned some of the losties to the island but to the year 1977.
ii. Returned the other losties to the original timeline
18. Now comes the interesting part:
The return of the losties to 1977 caused in circularity to Cause number a! (wonderful circularity that would not happened if they would not get off the island) meaning the Detonation of the Jarhead Bomb by Juliet.
And let us not forget Faraday that could not have helped them with the bomb if he had not had a constant keeping him in time and that was Desmond (As Faraday wrote in its journal That if everything will went wrong His constand is Desmond).
19. At last the Long Con of the smoke monster (I refuse to call it the MIB as he is not Jacob brother at all) comes to an end by enabling Desmond to stand in the pool of light and plug of the cork without dying of electromagnetism, and by that turning off the
restrictions about him leaving the Island.
But here also comes to end the Smoke Monster himself; he did not realize that by turning off the restrictions he would turn off his immortality which lead to Jack finally being able to kill him, which lead to the conclusion that the Long con was actually Jacob Long Con has he let Smokey do all of the above knowing that eventually his immortality will wear off and lead to the final destruction of the monster.
Yes and one last thing, Juliet said it worked as she saw whole of the plot unfolds like it was unfold here, and realized that the bomb she detonated it’s the incident that set the things in motion and making Jacob Long Con to